Bangladesh vs Pakistan 3rd ODI Prediction: Miraz vs Sadaqat

Series deciders at Mirpur seldom allow for a poor beginning. On Sunday, Bangladesh’s main task is straightforward: contain Maaz Sadaqat during the Powerplay, and then put pressure on Pakistan in the middle overs.

Bangladesh bowled Pakistan out for 114 in the first match and won the chase for 115/2 within 16 overs; Pakistan responded with 274 and a 128-run victory (DLS) in the second, rain-affected ODI, meaning the series is currently level at 1-1.

Therefore, this Bangladesh versus Pakistan 3rd ODI prediction rests on a single question: will Mehidy Hasan Miraz’s team be able to dismiss Sadaqat early, or will Pakistan’s left-hander continue to dictate the pace?

The 3rd ODI begins March 15 at the Shere Bangla National Stadium, Dhaka (day-night), with a 2:15pm local start (1:45pm IST). Indian audiences are able to watch the game on FanCode.

There is also the possibility of heat, and a definite risk of a storm in the afternoon. Should clouds appear, both captains will be considering DLS from the first ball.

Series to date: two matches, two very different results

In the first ODI, Bangladesh were at their best: seam bowlers bowled a good, testing length, spinners supported them, and Nahid Rana’s five wickets destroyed Pakistan’s batting lineup. Pakistan were all out for 114, and Bangladesh completed their chase at 115/2 in 15.1 overs, with Tanzid Hasan Tamim finishing on 67 not out.

The second ODI was the reverse. Pakistan got to 85/0 in the first ten overs, reached 274 all out, and then dismissed Bangladesh for 114 in 23.3 overs – the chase falling apart, and resulting in a 128-run DLS win.

For a Bangladesh versus Pakistan 3rd ODI prediction, these extremes indicate one thing: whichever side dominates the first ten overs will win the day.

Dhaka’s pitch and the weather

The second match was played on another grassy pitch, and Rana said after the first game that there was movement for the fast bowlers at the start. This is why both teams view Mirpur as a Powerplay ground, not a place for spin to take over.

The second match was on a “grassy deck”, and Pakistan’s quick start in the Powerplay came from balls pitching up and moving, and a new ball which travelled. Sadaqat’s fifty in 31 balls in that match was not a typical Mirpur chip-and-run; it was forceful hitting over square leg and midwicket.

Any Bangladesh versus Pakistan 3rd ODI prediction must take the first spell as the true pitch report, and not the venue’s reputation. If rain reduces the length of the game, early wickets and early boundaries will become even more valuable.

Bangladesh versus Pakistan 3rd ODI prediction: the strategy to contain Sadaqat

Sadaqat has been Pakistan’s most important player in this series. He has scored 93 runs in two ODIs, making him the leading run-scorer, and his 75 off 46 in the second match was at a strike rate of over 160.

Bangladesh have already removed him in two different ways. Rana got him with a bouncer in the opener, during that initial five-wicket spell; Mehidy got him in the second ODI when Sadaqat attempted a scoop shot and gave a catch to the wicketkeeper.

Miraz does not need to select between “pace first” or “spin first”. He needs to select the ball to match Sadaqat’s movements – his shuffle, his quick hands, and his willingness to hit balls outside off stump towards the leg side.

So Bangladesh’s best plan for the first ten overs looks like this: one seamer attacks the top of off stump with a wobble seam, the other moves him wider with angle, and then Mehidy from over the wicket with a tight off-side field which invites the extra cover drive. Rana can still be the final, decisive blow, but he needs a better plan than the one he used in the second game.

Bangladesh have proof that failing to follow this plan is punished. When they went to Rana early in the second ODI, Sadaqat scored 22 off one over and forced changes to the field inside the first ten overs. That is the over Bangladesh cannot afford to give him in a decider.

Miraz’s options: spin to restrict, pace in short spells

Mehidy’s statistics tell the whole story for Bangladesh. He has five wickets in two matches and kept the scoring down even on the more lively pitch in the second game.

His off-spin has a direct impact on the Sadaqat issue. A right-arm off-spinner to a left-hander creates a natural “away from the bat” trajectory, so mistimed slogs go up, and the misjudged sweep goes square. Bangladesh used this match-up to get Sadaqat in the second ODI; they can use it again with a straight midwicket and a deep square leg ready for the mis-hit.

Rishad Hossain is the other control. He took three wickets in the second ODI and has already shown he can finish an innings quickly once Bangladesh sense a chance.

The seam pairing is as important. Taskin and Mustafizur didn’t get the early movement they wanted against Sadaqat in the second game, so cutters and cross-seam deliveries must arrive sooner, not only at the end of the innings.

Pakistan’s response: take advantage early, then protect the middle order

Pakistan’s strength is clear: if Sadaqat and Farhan get them 60-70 in the first ten overs, Bangladesh’s bowlers will lose the ability to set a catching field. Pakistan reached 85 without losing a wicket in the opening ten overs of the second ODI, and that start nearly became a total exceeding 320.

Pakistan’s potential is therefore balanced against a real danger; in each of the two games so far they’ve managed to fall apart – being bowled out for 114 in the first, then losing seven wickets for 43 towards the end of the second after a lengthy partnership from Rizwan and Salman Agha.

This is the core of what this Bangladesh versus Pakistan 3rd ODI prediction rests on: Pakistan begin strongly, but their finishing has been unreliable.

Hussain Talat’s injury is the other thing to consider. After damaging his shoulder in the second ODI, he went to hospital to be checked, and if he isn’t completely recovered Pakistan may have to change the side to keep the balance right.

If Talat is out, Pakistan will probably go for either a specialist spinner – Abrar Ahmed – to bowl overs on a pitch which is becoming easier to turn the ball on, or a batting all-rounder – Saad Masood – to make sure the lower order don’t seem like a tail at number seven. Pakistan used Abrar in the first ODI and Haris Rauf in the second, so which player they pick for the final game will show what they think the pitch will be like.

The four contests which will decide the result

Sadaqat against Nahid Rana is the main event. Rana has taken six wickets in the two matches, and already showed he can get Sadaqat out with bounce and speed, but the second game showed he can be hit if he doesn’t hit the right length by a yard.

Sadaqat versus Mehidy is the strategic move. Mehidy has already removed him once, and is the bowler Miraz trusts to end a partnership without changing the nature of the game.

Tanzid Hasan Tamim against Shaheen Afridi is Bangladesh’s biggest batting problem. Shaheen got Tanzid out for 1 and Shanto for 0 in the second ODI, and Bangladesh’s chase never got going after that early pressure.

Rizwan and Salman Agha versus Bangladesh’s middle-overs spin will decide Pakistan’s score. Their partnership of 109 in the second ODI gave Pakistan a winning total despite the late collapse, so Bangladesh will be looking for that wicket in the 25th–35th over period.

Possible teams

Bangladesh have played the same team in both matches, and the simplest thing to do is to go with that same team for the decider. In a Bangladesh versus Pakistan 3rd ODI prediction, what players do is more important than who they are: three fast bowlers, two main spinners, and batting down to number eight.

Pakistan have already made one change to the bowling in the series: Abrar Ahmed played in the first game; Haris Rauf in the second. If Talat is fit, Pakistan can keep the same team which won by 128 runs; if Talat isn’t at 100%, the middle order needs to be looked at again.

Prediction: who will win, and why

This Bangladesh versus Pakistan 3rd ODI prediction is a little in favour of Pakistan, mainly because of their batting and pace options. If Sadaqat gives them another start of 40 or more, and Shaheen gets early swing to remove either Tanzid or Shanto, Pakistan can control the match even if there’s a reduced-overs game due to the weather.

Bangladesh’s route to victory is narrower, but it is there. They need Rana to win the first spell, Miraz to control the middle, and Tanzid to bat in the chase as he did in the first game, when he finished with 67 not out in a fast scoring match.

I’d say Pakistan 55-45 in a full 50-over game, with the balance moving towards Bangladesh if cloud cover shortens the match and the new ball gets extra movement. Either way, the first twelve overs will tell you a lot, brother.

If you’re making a fantasy XI, start with Sadaqat and Mehidy as safe players who will get a lot of opportunities, then add either Rana or Shaheen for wickets at the start. Litton and Towhid are in the “high potential, high risk” group in this series after Bangladesh’s collapse in the second game.

Key points

Final thoughts

My Bangladesh versus Pakistan 3rd ODI prediction still supports Pakistan by a small amount, but the difference is not large. A 1-1 ODI series in Dhaka shows simple cricketing truths: take wickets early, protect your middle order, and save your best bowler for the right batter, not the right over number.

If Bangladesh get the first punch in with Rana and Taskin, Sher-e-Bangla will seem small for Pakistan. If Pakistan survive that first burst and let Sadaqat set the tone again, Shaheen’s pace attack can turn the decider into a long chase for Bangladesh’s unsteady batting line-up.